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The Times Are the Market and Your Life Is a Stock. Stick to the Fundamentals and Make Bold Moves.

A friend once said something I found interesting: the times are like the broader market, and a life is like an individual stock. That perspective explains a lot. In a severe bear market, a stock that bucks the trend is extremely hard to come by. That is one reason we all want our country to do well.

So what should you do in a market that is rising over the long run? First, recognize that even eras we can look back on as sustained uptrends had their share of turbulence along the way. What are the underlying forces that set the direction of the times? Are they still in place? As long as they are, difficult periods are precisely when you should be on the lookout for opportunities.

Also, think carefully before changing ships when yours is making headway through rough seas. A brief spell of turbulence is a poor reason to board a ship that has run out of fuel or is already sinking. In other words, the opportunity cost of leaving is very high in an ascendant era. The reverse is true in an era of decline, which is why judging the broader environment matters so much.

Second, even in the same era, some stocks deliver excess returns, some track the average, and some underperform the benchmark. Opportunities for strong alpha usually come from the big trends of the day or from addressing a central tension in society. Beta comes from following the established mainstream path. Keep your head down and you can ride the rising tide, but moving up a deck usually takes an unexpected tactic or a lucky break. Low returns or even losses that compound over time tend to come from fields the era is leaving behind. A train sometimes sheds a few burdensome cars to pick up speed. If you are in one of those cars, hard work alone will get you only so far. You need to look farther afield and be willing to shake things up.

Finally, take particular care to avoid the personal equivalent of a stock being flagged for special treatment (ST) or even delisted. In a long bull market, that usually happens because people court disaster or chase shady shortcuts. Betting heavily on something you do not understand or using leverage to make a quick buck is a sure way to earn an ST flag. A single mid-cycle correction will do it. Shady shortcuts promise to multiply your returns, but if they involve breaking the law, for example, the multiplier can easily end up being zero over the long run.

In short, the smart strategy is to stick to the fundamentals and make bold moves. First make sure you can capture at least some of the era's beta. At the same time, think deeply, learn, prepare, and stay alert to opportunities and risks. When the chance to make one decisive move finally comes, have the courage to take on the risks that are already out in the open and stake your future on your assessment of where the era is heading over the medium to long term.

Via Crystal Flyswatter (水晶苍蝇拍)